How likely is it to pull a character from data cards?

Solution 1:

The chance of getting a shard from a Bronzium card seems to be around 10%. See this spreadsheet from /r/SWGalaxyOfHeroes/.

SWGoHCantina.com has a breakdown of drops from Chromium cards. It looks like the total chance at a character is around 25% (with 2* and 3* being more prevalent than 1* or 4*), with shards taking the remaining 75%. It doesn't look like they have data for the 4- or 8-packs specifically — which makes sense given that it would cost thousands to get a statistically significant number of them — but I would hypothesize that the non-guaranteed cards are simply treated exactly like normal individual cards.

So for example, the 4-pack would have a 1 - 0.75⁴ ~= 68% chance of pulling one or more characters and a 4×(0.25×0.75³) ~= 42% chance of pulling exactly one character. The average number of characters per each 4-pack will be exactly 1:

4×(0.25⁴) + 1×4×(0.25×0.75³) + 2×6×(0.25²×0.75²) + 3×4×(0.75×0.25³)