Prove a thm on stopped processes given fundamental principle 'you can't beat the system'?
How does the principle below imply the thm below?
From Williams' Probability w/ Martingales:
Principle:
Thm:
What I tried:
$$E[X_{T \wedge n} - X_0 | \mathscr{F_m}] =/ \le X_{T \wedge m} - X_0 \ \forall m < n$$
$$\to E[X_{T \wedge n} | \mathscr{F_m}] =/ \le X_{T \wedge m}$$
$$\to E[X_{T \wedge n} | \mathscr{F_0}] =/ \le X_{T \wedge 0} \ \text{by choosing m = 0}$$
$$\to E[X_{T \wedge n}] =/ \le X_0$$
$$\to E[E[X_{T \wedge n}]] =/ \le E[X_0]$$
$$\to E[X_{T \wedge n}] =/ \le E[X_0]$$
I think $X_0$ is constant and $\mathscr{F}_0$ is the trivial $\sigma$-algebra.
Is that right?
Solution 1:
Hint: Choose the process $C$ so that $(C\cdot X)_n=X_{T\wedge n}-X_0$, which is what you did.
Intuition: To obtain the stopped-at-$T$ process, you want to keep betting so long as time $T$ hasn't yet passed.