What's the upshot?

Via the Talk Wordy To Me blog, Hunting with the Bow and Arrow by Saxton Pope explains:

In ancient times when archery was practiced in open fields and shooting at butts or clouts, men walked between their distances much as golfers do today, and having completed their course, it was often customary to shoot a return round over the same field. This was called the upshot, and has descended into common parlance, just as many other phrases have which had their origin in the use of the bow and arrow.

However, Word Origins (1999) by Dhirendra Verma gives another reason:

UPSHOT

Upshot, which currently refers to outcome, result or conclusion, was originally an archery term, meaning the final shot in a match. This use of up to mean the end or conclusion is found in such phrases as The time is up (run out, ended).

And What's in a Word (2000) by Webb B. Garrison gives yet another explanation:

Upshot. Villagers of medieval Britain took their archery seriously. Big matches were gala affairs, affecting the social standing of every man who took part. Many were conducted like modern sports events; the fellow who won a given round moved up to the next. It wasn't unusual for competitors to be so closely matched that the last arrow of a round would determine its outcome.

In such circumstances a single arrow caused one man to drop out and the other to move up toward a new opponent. Upshot came to name the shot that could raise an archer up to a new round. Used by Shakespeare and Milton the sporting word entered general speech to signify any result or conclusion, no matter how remote from activities on the village green.

"Upshot" means final result. It is not very probable that "up+to shoot/a shot" develops the idea of final result. It may well be that "shot" originally was something else and transformed later into "shot".

The English word upshot reminds me of German Abschluss, from schließen, to close. Abschluß is the end of something.

So I would not search in the word family to shoot but in the word family to close, Latin claudere/cludere, German schließen, English to shut. I can imagine that "-shut" can be transformed into "shot".

I know cases where the prefix up- does not mean upwards but corresponds exactly to German or Latin ab. I have to see whether I can find an example.

Added: One such case would be to wash up, which corresponds to German abwaschen.

This is speculative but I think it may come from up-draw.

From OED –

upˈdraw, v.

a. To draw up to a height or from a lower place; also, to draw (a bow) to the full.

It then follows that upshot would be the final drawing and shooting of the bow.

When a bow is drawn the arrow points at the ground, as the string is drawn back the arrow and bow are brought horizontal. I believe that is the meaning of up-draw, the drawing back of the string and the raising of the arrow and bow to finally aim at the target.

I followed Andrew Leach's excellent suggestion, and I think he may be right. It seems that field archery matches were walked over distance much like in golf. Targets were "down the field," so it makes sense that turning around to shoot back toward the start would be "shooting up- field." I have an email in to an archery group to confirm this.