Meaning of "Do you think it will rain?" [closed]

With verbs like 'feel', and 'think' where negation can be transferred from the dependent clause to the main clause, e.g. "I don't think it will rain" can mean "I think it will not rain," how do we interpret questions like:

"Do you think it will rain?"

Is one asking whether

a) You think it will rain vs "Not" You think it will rain.
or
b) You think it will rain vs You think it will not rain.
or
c) Is it ambiguous between both a and b.

I see many examples of negative raising in the references of https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Negative_raising e.g. Horn, Laurence R. (2001). A natural history of negation. but couldn't find any examples on questions like the above where negation may be considered implicit in the question.

Solution 1:

In "Do you think it will rain?", you are asking an open question that can be answered by "Yes" or "No."

The addition of or not [rain] adds nothing to the meaning other than a virtual (as opposed to real) greater psychological liberty to answer in the general negative.

However, in current Modern English, it is not possible to answer "Do you think it will rain or not?" with “Yes” or “No”.

The addition is therefore pointless as it prevents a direct unambiguous answer. (In earlier forms of Modern English, this was possible to answer such questions by the response of “Yeah” or “Nay”.)

The constructions parallels “May I go out?” in which there is an apparently implied “or not”. However, as it is unspoken, (in the same way that "Do you think it will rain?"), the question is taken at face-value and can be answered “Yes” or “No.”

The "or not", nevertheless, has an effect: as it cannot be answered monosyllabically, it encourages the responder to explain the reasons for his opinion.

Absent further, and less common, context, in questions like: "Do you think it will rain?", one is asking for an opinion – no more, no less. The reply - "Yes" or "No" creates a conversation that is the minimum required for an exchange of information and, as such is neither ambiguous or inefficient.