What is the chance of Mehrune's Razor to proc?
Testing can be awfully bloody sometimes. Just ask Constance Michel:
So I went around in god mode with the Mehrune's Razor and tested it on a bunch of NPCs after doing the following:
- Disable their AI via tai
- Set their health to 5000 via setav health 5000 (so they don't die to regular damage)
- Go on a rampage spree in Riften
Here are the # of hits before dying:
- 15
- 14
- 1 (Super unlucky guard)
- 114 (Super lucky guard)
- 39
- 3
- 36
- 51
- 21
- 46
- 67
- 28
- 66
- 66
- 19
- 70
- 22
- 76
- 34
- 18
- 29
- 36
- 61
- 47
Average: 38.8333333 hits (stdev 26.8, which is quite high...)
This works out to be ~2.57% +/-1.78% margin of error
If anyone wants to provide more sample points, go right ahead. For now, I'm going to conclude that the chance to proc is roughly 2.5%
yx. might need to check his math. I get a mean of 40.7917 for the values he quoted, with a standard deviation of 26.8.
This means 955 hits were non-instant while 24 were instant-kill hits.
Combining this with my own data of roughly 849 hits with 31 instant-kills (plus a few more) gives a total of 1955 regular hits & 58 instant-kill hits.
I applied a Bayesian approach and set the prior density to a half-triangle that peaks at zero, since most people assumed it was small. The final result is:
(2.91 +- 0.74)%,
where the +- indicates a 95% probability interval. As a hunch, since game programmers might prefer round numbers, our data together suggests that 3% might be the true proc rate.
According to the UESP Mehrunes' Razor article, the chance of the Mehrunes' Razor instant kill effect activating is 2/101 or ~ 1.98%.
Note: This is the actual chance of activating, as this information was extracted from the game's files using the Creation Kit.