In Mario Party 4, what are the odds of the lottery house?

In Mario Party 4, there's a lottery house where you can win an item, 30 or 100 coins.

What are the odds to win a prize in the lottery house?

Solution 1:

This video investigates the lottery shop. It's all in commentary rather than text unfortunately.

For the scratch game, out of the 12 cards, there is 1 item, 1 thirty-coin prize, and 1 hundred-coin prize. This means you'll win something 25% of the time, and the chance of winning any prize in particular is 8.33%. Pretty good odds actually.

For the ball game, nothing is in the player's control. The video did 100 tests and got:

• 66% lose
• 22% item
• 10% thirty coins
• 2% hundred coins

...which is a higher chance of winning something than the scratch game, but an unequal chance of what you do win. (I'm guessing the true probabilities are 20%, 10%, 1%, but who knows.)

The game picked and its results are determined when you hit the dice block to start your turn.