Which is preferred, "On the other hand, if ..." or "If, on the other hand, ..."?

Suppose you were presenting two different conditions. Which of the following is preferred? Does it matter?

If the flower is red, it may be a rose. On the other hand, if it is blue, it may be a violet.

or

If the flower is red, it may be a rose. If, on the other hand, it is blue, it may be a violet.

Both are perfectly grammatical and widely used.

Google returns 51 million results for "on the other hand, if" and 94 million results for "if, on the other hand", suggesting that on the Web, the latter is preferred by a factor of approximately 2.

However, Google Books paints a different picture, with 3 million results for "on the other hand, if", and 2 million results for "if, on the other hand".

First one, because the second one is too wordy and awkwardly phrased. Both sentences should say "might" rather than "may," because they're about condition, not permission.