"I like to" vs. "I'd like to"

When making a polite request, people often use the phrase, "I'd like to [SOME REQUEST]". But I also see the form, "I like to [SOME REQUEST]". For example, a former boss would arbitrarily interchange

I'd like to hold a meeting

with the other usage:

I like to hold a meeting

Up until recently I considered the first form more correct, and thought of the second form as a malapropism (or is it a mondegreen?). But now I'm not so sure. "I'd like to" implies the conditional mood ("I would") which is more tentative than the intended request.

"I like to hold a meeting" is more indirect, and perhaps more polite, than "Please hold a meeting". But "I would like to" is even more indirect and conveys indecisiveness.

Is there clear guidance on which form? Does it depend on the nature of the request?

@John Lawler has already given you the "clear guidance".

would like can be a polite replacement of 'want'.

• I'd like two kilos of sugar, please.
• Would you like to dance?

Generally, after would like, would prefer, would hate and would love, infinitives are most often used.

• I'd like to tell you something

I'd like to hold a meeting is definitely an apt expression/request coming from a person in authority, in this case your Boss.

• More often than not, the tone of the expression/purpose of the intended meeting, would determine the degree of politeness.

I like to hold a meeting can be considered equivalent to -choose to; it's my habit.

• when I pour tea I like to put the milk in first .
• I like to hold meetings.

The latter firm is not a request; it's an expression of pleasure (better expressed as 'I like to hold meetings').

Though you might hear weakness in the first form, it's more an expression of politeness or 'soft power.' Your boss could also say "There's a meeting. Be there," and though your obligation would not change, your team's feelings likely would.