Events that carry negative information
I want to answer the following exercise:
An event $F$ is said to carry negative information about an event $E$, and we write $F \downarrow E$ if $P(E|F) \le P(E)$
Prove or give counterexamples of the following assertions:
a) If $F \downarrow E$ then $E \downarrow F$
my attempt: we have that $\frac{P(EF)}{P(F)} \leq P(E)$ then we have that $P(FE)=P(EF) \leq P(E)P(F)$ therefore $\frac{P(FE)}{P(E)} \leq P(F)$
b)If $F \downarrow E$ and $E \downarrow G$ then $F \downarrow G$
c)If $F \downarrow E$ and $G \downarrow E$ then $FG \downarrow E$
Repaeat a),b),c) but with $\uparrow$(is the same definition but with greater than instead of lower than)
and my questions are, Am I right in my attempt?, I can't figure out how in b) I will get $P(GF)$, and if I am wrong how can I get the counterexamples for a),b),c) I think that the same way to proceed with $\downarrow$ is equal to $\uparrow$,then if I have the $\downarrow$ part the other one is equal only the inequalities are inverted,isn't?
Thanks a lot for your help, I appreciate it very much :)
Solution 1:
Hint(s):
For part (b), what happens if $G=F$?
For part (c), what if $F$ and $G$ are events where $F \downarrow G$, and $E$ is the event $$E = (F \text{ and } G) \text{ or } (\text{not }F \text{ and not } G)$$ (Try drawing a Venn Diagram if you're having trouble seeing what I'm describing. $F$ and $G$ should be two ovals with a small intersection relative to their sizes, and $E$ should be the area both outside the two ovals and inside their intersection).
Solution 2:
Inspired by user88319. I can give a counterexample of (c).
Suppose S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14},
E = {get a point >= 7},
F = {1, 2, 3, 7},
G = {4, 5, 6, 7},
P(E) = 8/14,
P(E|F) = 1/4 < P(E),
P(E|G) = 1/4 < P(E),
But P(E|GF) = 1 > P(E) because the only situation that F and G both happen is get point 7