How do you tell if synonyms of "almost" default to meaning "less than"?

Solution 1:

This is a really complicated question, and the answer is not simple. This phenomenon involves Negation, Quantification, and Metaphor, and that's already too much for a short answer. I'll try, though.

The words in question are called "approximatives" in the trade. They are adverbs of degree, I suppose, if one must put a POS tag on them, and they function to add some precision to quantification. What they mean generally depends on what metaphor they're instantiating.

It's like calculus -- how to describe precisely the experience of approaching some kind of limit in a continuous event or state. Without math. This is not easy, so we use metaphors instead.

There are several kinds of measured continuity that humans naturally experience, leading to several kinds of natural metaphor for humans measuring continuity. They can measure, as it turns out, linear motion (JOURNEY metaphors), or they can measure accumulation (CONTAINER metaphors).

• Motion metaphors: Personal Experience (LIFE) is Personal Motion (JOURNEY)
  • (There is a directionality to this metaphor, so these all imply not there yet)
  • almost/nearly/practically at the 50-yard line/goal/limit/right age/border
• Container metaphors: LIFE is Accumulated Memory (CONTAINER)
  • (think a big jar of memories, piling UP as they get MORE -- a vertical linear model)
  • pass/over/under/up to the mark/the top/the time limit/two years/ten million rubles
  • (or think a cupboard full of memories, which may be full or bare)

So, one point is that these are both vectors -- they have a starting state (BEGINNING, EMPTY), they have an ending state (FINISH, FULL), with a continuous range between them, and the directionality is one-way (FORWARD, UPWARD). That means that purely locative phrases like near or close to mean "not yet" only if they're interpreted as directional metaphors; it isn't intrinsic to their meanings.

A second point is that some of these terms are intrinsically negative, and can trigger NPIs like ever. Let me just say that this does not make the grammar any simpler.

• I seldom/rarely ever see them.
• He hardly/scarcely ever gets it right.

A third point is that there is a personal and temporal dimension to these metaphors. Abstract concepts like emotion and time are almost impossible to talk about without metaphor, and they permeate almost all our metaphors.

Solution 2:

In my experience, the word almost and its synonyms imply "less than", but not necessarily "numerically less than". The context specifies a goal or end point, and a direction of travel to that end point, and while travelling in the direction of the goal, but not reaching the goal, you might almost reach it.

Example:

I made almost $100 over the weekend

This would never imply that someone made $101 over the weekend.

I almost ran the race in 25s

This would imply that the runner was trying for the lowest time and almost broke 25s, i.e. that their time was higher than 25s.

I fired the cannon and the cannonball almost landed right on top of the target

This means that the cannonball landed near the target. It would be perfectly acceptable to say this if the cannonball went slightly farther than the target (I'd argue that at that point, the "direction" of the goal changed because we over-shot it).

Solution 3:

The Merriam-Webster defines "almost" as "very nearly but not exactly or entirely"1. Synonyms given are "about, all but, borderline, fair [chiefly British], fairly, feckly [chiefly Scottish], more or less, most, much, near, nearly, next to, nigh, practically, somewhere, virtually, well-nigh, as good as, just about, pretty much, within an inch of".

All of these synonyms default to "a little less" than something. Generally, to find out what a word implies, you can look up its definition in a good dictionary.

An example: The reason why "nearly" implies "less" is that the word has a secondary meaning in addition to "almost".

M-W on "nearly"2: "almost but not quite" (highlighting by me)

"Barely" is no synonym to "almost"! It means that it "just made it" beyond almost and reached equal or greater status. Example: "He's barely 18!" means that he is equal to and/or above the age of 18. "Just" also does not mean almost.

M-W on "barely"3: "in a meager manner"

In my personal experience, "close to" only replaces "almost" adequately if "almost" is the primary meaning. "31 is close to 30" is a bad example, since "31 is almost 30" actually means either "31 is not far from 30" or "the difference between 31 and 30 is negligible". A good example would be "I'm 29, close to 30". Since "almost" implies something being less, the phrase "I'm 30, close to/almost 29" would be wrong.

In the time it took me to write my answer, the same answer has been given as a comment to your question, but I hope the links and explanations are helpful nonetheless.