What aria label should I use for 'inactive' items in a list that the user can still interact with?

From a semantics and accessibility point of view, I'd consider separating out the controls from the visualization itself—at least in terms of the markup. This will let you use more semantic input elements, like <input type="radio">, which come with their own states that assistive tech understands. And it will keep selection state (which is an input element trait) separate from highlighted state (which is a visualization display trait).

You can then tie those input elements to the visualization using the aria-controls attribute.

To denote the state of the items in the visualization itself, instead of using ARIA roles, I would suggest just using text.

A basic example could work something like this:

const items = document.querySelectorAll('.item')
document.querySelectorAll('input').forEach(input => {
  input.addEventListener('change', e => {
    let targets = e.target.dataset.controls.split(' ')
    items.forEach(item => {
      let index = targets.indexOf(item.id)
      if (-1 === index) item.dataset.state = 'inactive'
      else if (0 === index) item.dataset.state = 'selected'
      else item.dataset.state = 'highlighted'
    })
  })
})
body {
  display: grid;
  grid-template: auto auto / auto auto;
  grid-auto-flow: column;
}
form,
figure {
  display: grid;
  grid-template: auto/auto auto 1fr;
  gap: 1ch;
}
fieldset {
  display: grid;
  grid-template: auto/auto auto;
}
input,
label {
  cursor: pointer;
}
figure,
ul {
  padding: 0;
  margin: 0;
}
ul {
  list-style: none;
}
li {
  margin: 1ch 0 0 1ch;
  padding: 1ch;
}
li[data-state="inactive"] {
  background: #ddd;
}
li[data-state="selected"] {
  background: #aaffaa;
}
li[data-state="highlighted"] {
  background: #aaaaff;
}
li[data-state="inactive"] span,
li[data-state="highlighted"] span.selected {
  display: none;
}
li[data-state="selected"] span,
li[data-state="highlighted"] span.highlighted {
  display: inline;
}
<h2>Controls</h2>
<form>
  <fieldset>
    <legend>List A</legend>
    <input id="input-A1" type="radio" name="input" aria-controls="graphic" data-controls="item-A1 item-B2 item-B3" />
    <label for="input-A1">A1</label>
    <input id="input-A2" type="radio" name="input" aria-controls="graphic" data-controls="item-A2 item-B1" />
    <label for="input-A2">A2</label>
    <input id="input-A3" type="radio" name="input" aria-controls="graphic" data-controls="item-A3 item-B2 item-B3 item-B4" />
    <label for="input-A3">A3</label>
    <input id="input-A4" type="radio" name="input" aria-controls="graphic" data-controls="item-A4 item-B2" />
    <label for="input-A4">A4</label>
  </fieldset>
  <fieldset>
    <legend>List B</legend>
    <input id="input-B1" type="radio" name="input" aria-controls="graphic" data-controls="item-B1 item-A2 item-A3 item-A4" />
    <label for="input-B1">B1</label>
    <input id="input-B2" type="radio" name="input" aria-controls="graphic" data-controls="item-B2 item-A2 item-B3" />
    <label for="input-B2">B2</label>
    <input id="input-B3" type="radio" name="input" aria-controls="graphic" data-controls="item-B3 item-A1 item-A4" />
    <label for="input-B3">B3</label>
    <input id="input-B4" type="radio" name="input" aria-controls="graphic" data-controls="item-B4 item-A2" />
    <label for="input-B4">B4</label>
  </fieldset>
</form>
<h2>Visualization</h2>
<figure id="graphic" aria-live="polite">
  <ul aria-label="List A">
    <li class="item" id="item-A1" data-state="inactive">A1<span class="selected">, selected</span><span class="highlighted">, highlighted</span></li>
    <li class="item" id="item-A2" data-state="inactive">A2<span class="selected">, selected</span><span class="highlighted">, highlighted</span></li>
    <li class="item" id="item-A3" data-state="inactive">A3<span class="selected">, selected</span><span class="highlighted">, highlighted</span></li>
    <li class="item" id="item-A4" data-state="inactive">A4<span class="selected">, selected</span><span class="highlighted">, highlighted</span></li>
  </ul>
  <ul aria-label="List B">
    <li class="item" id="item-B1" data-state="inactive">B1<span class="selected">, selected</span><span class="highlighted">, highlighted</span></li>
    <li class="item" id="item-B2" data-state="inactive">B2<span class="selected">, selected</span><span class="highlighted">, highlighted</span></li>
    <li class="item" id="item-B3" data-state="inactive">B3<span class="selected">, selected</span><span class="highlighted">, highlighted</span></li>
    <li class="item" id="item-B4" data-state="inactive">B4<span class="selected">, selected</span><span class="highlighted">, highlighted</span></li>
  </ul>
</figure>

But you probably want the visualization to be directly manipulatable by clicking on the items themselves. If so, you could keep the same structure as the first example, but visually hide the accessible controls and text, and trigger the controls whenever a user clicks on an item in the visualization.

Again, this still has the form controls which are responsible for controlling state—they're just visually hidden:

const items = document.querySelectorAll('.item')
document.querySelectorAll('input').forEach(input => {
  input.addEventListener('change', e => {
    let targets = e.target.dataset.controls.split(' ')
    items.forEach(item => {
      let index = targets.indexOf(item.id)
      if (-1 === index) item.dataset.state = 'inactive'
      else if (0 === index) item.dataset.state = 'selected'
      else item.dataset.state = 'highlighted'
    })
  })
})
items.forEach(item => {
  item.addEventListener('click', e => {
    let inputId = 'input-' + e.target.id.split('-')[1]
    document.getElementById(inputId).click()
  })
})
.sr-only {
  border: 0;
  clip: rect(1px, 1px, 1px, 1px);
  -webkit-clip-path: inset(50%);
  clip-path: inset(50%);
  height: 1px;
  margin: -1px;
  overflow: hidden;
  padding: 0;
  position: absolute;
  width: 1px;
  white-space: nowrap;
}
figure {
  display: grid;
  grid-template: auto/auto auto 1fr;
  gap: 1ch;
}
figure,
ul {
  padding: 0;
  margin: 0;
}
ul {
  list-style: none;
}
li {
  margin: 1ch 0 0 1ch;
  padding: 1ch;
  cursor: pointer;
}
li:hover {
  opacity: 0.6;
}
li[data-state="inactive"] {
  background: #ddd;
}
li[data-state="selected"] {
  background: #aaffaa;
}
li[data-state="highlighted"] {
  background: #aaaaff;
}
li[data-state="inactive"] span,
li[data-state="highlighted"] span.selected {
  display: none;
}
li[data-state="selected"] span,
li[data-state="highlighted"] span.highlighted {
  display: inline;
}
<div class="sr-only">
  <h2>Controls</h2>
  <form>
    <fieldset>
      <legend>List A</legend>
      <input id="input-A1" type="radio" name="input" aria-controls="graphic" data-controls="item-A1 item-B2 item-B3"/>
      <label for="input-A1">A1</label>
      <input id="input-A2" type="radio" name="input" aria-controls="graphic" data-controls="item-A2 item-B1"/>
      <label for="input-A2">A2</label>
      <input id="input-A3" type="radio" name="input" aria-controls="graphic" data-controls="item-A3 item-B2 item-B3 item-B4"/>
      <label for="input-A3">A3</label>
      <input id="input-A4" type="radio" name="input" aria-controls="graphic" data-controls="item-A4 item-B2"/>
      <label for="input-A4">A4</label>
    </fieldset>
    <fieldset>
      <legend>List B</legend>
      <input id="input-B1" type="radio" name="input" aria-controls="graphic" data-controls="item-B1 item-A2 item-A3 item-A4"/>
      <label for="input-B1">B1</label>
      <input id="input-B2" type="radio" name="input" aria-controls="graphic" data-controls="item-B2 item-A2 item-B3"/>
      <label for="input-B2">B2</label>
      <input id="input-B3" type="radio" name="input" aria-controls="graphic" data-controls="item-B3 item-A1 item-A4"/>
      <label for="input-B3">B3</label>
      <input id="input-B4" type="radio" name="input" aria-controls="graphic" data-controls="item-B4 item-A2"/>
      <label for="input-B4">B4</label>
    </fieldset>
  </form>
</div>
<h2 class="sr-only">Visualization</h2>
<figure id="graphic" aria-live="polite">
  <ul aria-label="List A">
    <li class="item" id="item-A1" data-state="inactive">A1<span class="sr-only selected">, selected</span><span class="sr-only highlighted">, highlighted</span></li>
    <li class="item" id="item-A2" data-state="inactive">A2<span class="sr-only selected">, selected</span><span class="sr-only highlighted">, highlighted</span></li>
    <li class="item" id="item-A3" data-state="inactive">A3<span class="sr-only selected">, selected</span><span class="sr-only highlighted">, highlighted</span></li>
    <li class="item" id="item-A4" data-state="inactive">A4<span class="sr-only selected">, selected</span><span class="sr-only highlighted">, highlighted</span></li>
  </ul>
  <ul aria-label="List B">
    <li class="item" id="item-B1" data-state="inactive">B1<span class="sr-only selected">, selected</span><span class="sr-only highlighted">, highlighted</span></li>
    <li class="item" id="item-B2" data-state="inactive">B2<span class="sr-only selected">, selected</span><span class="sr-only highlighted">, highlighted</span></li>
    <li class="item" id="item-B3" data-state="inactive">B3<span class="sr-only selected">, selected</span><span class="sr-only highlighted">, highlighted</span></li>
    <li class="item" id="item-B4" data-state="inactive">B4<span class="sr-only selected">, selected</span><span class="sr-only highlighted">, highlighted</span></li>
  </ul>
</figure>