How do I see the equivalence of these two definitions of risk homeostasis? [closed]
These two definitions should be equivalent, but correct me if I'm wrong.
Definition 1. Risk homeostasis is that when something becomes less risky, the more risk is taken, in order to keep the expected risk constant. (Source: Wikipedia article on Risk Homeostasis)
Definition 2. Risk homeostasis is that people at any moment of time compare the amount of risk they perceive with their target level of risk and will adjust their behaviour in an attempt to eliminate any discrepancies between the two. (Source: BMJ)
Solution 1:
Wikipedia defines risk homeostasis in terms of risk and reward, much as financial pioneers Fama and French defined asset classes in terms of risk and reward.
Gerald J. S. Wilde proposed that
people maximise their benefit by comparing the expected costs and benefits of safer and riskier behaviour and which introduced the idea of the target level of risk
(quoting from the Wikipedia article).
During Covid-19 lockdowns, many US Interstate highways had drastically reduced traffic. Insurance companies lowered their rates because so few people were commuting.
Some Americans responded by driving over 100 MPH.
Wilde would say there are four factors in play, regarding risk homeostasis.
Expected benefits of risky behavior (e.g., gaining time by speeding, fighting boredom, increasing mobility)
Expected costs of risky behavior (e.g., speeding tickets, car repairs, insurance surcharges)
Expected benefits of safe behavior (e.g., insurance discounts for accident-free periods, enhancement of reputation of responsibility)
Expected costs of safe behavior (e.g., being called a coward by one's peers, time loss)
(Source: The Wikipedia article; however, the BMJ Wilde Opinion has the same four.)
Definition 2, straight from the horse's mouth, says:
Risk homeostasis theory posits that people at any moment of time compare the amount of risk they perceive with their target level of risk and will adjust their behaviour in an attempt to eliminate any discrepancies between the two.
These definitions seem to be equivalent. It says that American drivers will drive recklessly given half a chance, increasing their risk and reward to eliminate the perceived lower risk of empty highways.