Historic Discussions of Probability and Probability Comparisons

Solution 1:

I don't think it's much help but, from a quick look, there seems to be plenty of talk of probability in the Late Medieval period.

'Likelihood' is used several times in The Canterbury Tales. For example, the Prioress says,

To every place where she hath supposed

By liklihede hir litel child to fynde;

And a comparison of likelihoods is made in the Canon's Yeoman's Tale:

He is as boold to renne agayn a stoon

As for to goon bisides in the weye.

ie. He is as likely to run into a stone as to go round it-.

And 'Likeliness' is used in the Clerk's Tale:

God hath swich favour sent hire of his grace

That it ne semed nat by liklynesse

That she was born and fed in rudenesse,

Reginald Pecock - forty or fifty years later - talks about probabilities in The Follower to the Donet, and seems familiar with schools of logic:

Of euer eiþir of þe seid premyssis concludyng for feiþ, y haue not oonli likli euydencis, whiche ben clepid in scolis of logik probable euydencis or probabilitees, but y haue sure certeynte bi kunnyng or bi experience.

In The Rule of Christian Religion he says,

Mannys resoun in þis lijf wiþoute helpe of feiþ can not fynde and knowe bi certeynte..or probabilte þat þe feende is oure enemye.

and

Resoun may fynde in certeynte or in greet probabilite or likelihode þat þou, lord god, art moost worþi to be apprisid and loued of vs.

The phrase "probabilite or likelihode" appears again in his Repressing of Over Mich Wyting the Clergie.

You might do better at the StackExchange 'Literature' site. Good luck!