What are the chances of you getting an heirloom in Apex Legends?

I've spent a decent amount of money on this game. I've always bought Apex packs so one day I could get a heirloom, but that day still hasn't came yet. I've bought around 200-250 packs and still nothing. Is it ever guaranteed after so many packs? Or, do you just have to be lucky?

From the FAQ of Apex. https://www.ea.com/games/apex-legends/about/frequently-asked-questions#q3

How do the Bonus Heirloom Shards work?

When a player opens an Apex Pack, there is a <1% probability of Heirloom Shards dropping. Heirloom Shard drops do not deduct an Apex Pack from your inventory. Heirloom Sets cannot be crafted with Crafting Metals and can only be obtained by exchanging Heirloom Shards (or through a Collection Event). A player cannot open more than 500 Apex Packs without receiving Heirloom Shards (assuming the player does not own all of the available Heirloom Sets). Once a player owns all of the Heirloom Sets, the player will not be eligible for this bonus until more Heirloom Sets are added to the game.