Managing Aggressive Expansion while avoiding a Coalition

I'm trying to annex Provence's three provinces and two things will happen

• I would receive around 4 to 63 Aggressive Expansion

• Burgundy and the Papal State may form a coalition.

However, I presumed that having at least 50 Aggressive Expansion may cause any nation to form a coalition. So technically I should see more nations in that list. From my limited understanding, they're the only nations that will form a coalition or not?

How should I proceed?

Solution 1:

I suggest you to read this first: https://eu4.paradoxwikis.com/Alliance#Coalition

This article tells you that as long as there are 3 or fewer countries, coalition won't form. You can proceed, but be very careful with the following conquests.

Solution 2:

When you gain AE, you don't gain the same amount with everyone. It is calculated separately for each affected country.

The range means there is one country where AE would increase by 63 and another where it is only 4 (it doesn't mention all the ones in between). The minimum doesn't include any countries entirely unaffected (e.g. undiscovered new-world nations)

The tooltip only lists the countries gaining AE that would go above 50 total. Assuming this is your first war, it is likely there are a few countries that are gaining somewhere between 30 to 49 AE