Is .collect guaranteed to be ordered on parallel streams?

TL;DR

Yes, the order is guaranteed.

Stream.collect() API documentation

The starting place is to look at what determines whether a reduction is concurrent or not. Stream.collect()'s description says the following:

If the stream is parallel, and the Collector is concurrent, and either the stream is unordered or the collector is unordered, then a concurrent reduction will be performed (see Collector for details on concurrent reduction.)

The first condition is satisfied: the stream is parallel. How about the second and third: is the Collector concurrent and unordered?
 

Collectors.toList() API documentation

toList()'s documentation reads:

Returns a Collector that accumulates the input elements into a new List. There are no guarantees on the type, mutability, serializability, or thread-safety of the List returned; if more control over the returned List is required, use toCollection(Supplier).

Returns:
a Collector which collects all the input elements into a List, in encounter order

An operation that works in encounter order operates on the elements in their original order. This overrides parallelness.
 

Implementation code

Inspecting the implementation of Collectors.java confirms that toList() does not include the CONCURRENT or UNORDERED traits.

public static <T>
Collector<T, ?, List<T>> toList() {
    return new CollectorImpl<>((Supplier<List<T>>) ArrayList::new, List::add,
                               (left, right) -> { left.addAll(right); return left; },
                               CH_ID);
}

// ...

static final Set<Collector.Characteristics> CH_ID
        = Collections.unmodifiableSet(EnumSet.of(Collector.Characteristics.IDENTITY_FINISH));

Notice how the collector has the CH_ID trait set, which has only the single IDENTITY_FINISH trait. CONCURRENT and UNORDERED are not there, so the reduction cannot be concurrent.

A non-concurrent reduction means that, if the stream is parallel, collection can proceed in parallel, but it will be split into several thread-confined intermediate results which are then combined. This ensures the combined result is in encounter order.
 

See also: Why parallel stream get collected sequentially in Java 8

You are guaranteed to get the elements in encounter order.

From documentation of toList:

Returns: a Collector which collects all the input elements into a List, in encounter order

See java.util.streams summary for more information on the term "encounter order".

Furthermore, List#spliterator documentation requires that the all implementations of List produce spliterators that are ORDERED:

The Spliterator reports Spliterator.SIZED and Spliterator.ORDERED. Implementations should document the reporting of additional characteristic values.

Oddly enough, while List interface requires iterator() to produce elements in "proper sequence", spliterator() is only required to be ordered but not specifically required to follow the list's natural ordering.

So, to answer your question, the list produced by toList is guaranteed to contain the elements exactly as the source list's spliterator orders them. It does not matter whether the stream is parallel or sequential.