What are the odds of winning each prize in the Festival Plaza lotteries?
There are three kind of lotteries in the Festival Plaza: Big Dreams, Gold Rush and Treasure Hunt. You can play those lotteries only once a day, and you will draw a number between 1 and 10, each number representing one of the 10 prizes of the lottery. It seems like they are pulling a random number everyday, but I'm getting the 10th one (Berry Juice) nearly everyday. I am guessing that the better rewards are less common, but I wonder if there is a special system behind that.
How does the Lottery system work in the Festival Plaza and what are the odds to get each one of the items?
From the Serebii page on the Festival Plaza, it looks like the lower numbers (better prizes) are less likely to be rewarded than the higher numbers (worse prizes). However, you are able to increase your chances of getting better items by leveling up the rank of your store:
The different styles of Stores will give different top prizes and the higher the rank of the store, the more likely you get the higher prize.
Despite looking everywhere, I have seen no concrete numbers on the odds of getting each item. Your best bet of getting higher quality rewards from the Lottery Shop is to level up the rank of the store of the type of lottery you want to win.
I saw another good tip to increase your chances of winning in this article:
Since there’s no limit on what you can build, I would recommend tossing a few of these in your Festival Plaza from the beginning for a greater chance at getting rewards without spending your Festival Coins.
Lastly, there's another good tip here:
The higher your rank, the better the facility becomes. If you have a rank five Treasure Hunt, your chances of winning a top prize increase dramatically. You can have up to seven facilities in your Plaza. If five of these are rank 5 Treasure Hunts, chances are you’ll leave your plaza with 2-3 additional bottle caps daily.
In conclusion, it looks like if you want to win, have at least 2 Lottery Shops and 3-4 of whatever type of store you want to win the lottery for and max out all of their ranks.