Probability of landing on the nth stair.

Initial Question: We begin climbing a staircase beginning at stair zero. We choose to take either 1,2, or 3 steps at a time, where each number of steps have an equal chance of being chosen. What is the probability of hitting the fourth stair?

How I proceeded: In lieu of recognizing what type of problem I was looking at, I formed a tree, and found that there are seven ways to hit the fourth stair. Taking into consideration the weights of each of these outcomes I found the probability of hitting the fourth stair to be 37/81.

Deeper Question: While I found that finding the number of ways to hit the $n$th step was not too difficult (I think it is the sum of the ways of hitting the three previous steps, $k(n-3)+k(n-2)+k(n-1)$), I was not able to use this successfully to find general rule for the probability of hitting the $n$th step.

I am looking for some advice classifying this type of probability problem, or perhaps a link to a similar problem. Could this be viewed as some sort of random walk? Is there any hope for a closed form (explicit) solution?

Let $p_{n,k}$ be the probability of hitting the $n^\text{th}$ stair after exactly $k$ steps, and let $p_n$ be the probability of hitting the $n^\text{th}$ stair at some point. Then $p_{n,k}$ is the coefficient of $x^n$ in the polynomial $(\frac13x+\frac13x^2+\frac13x^3)^k$. Therefore, $p_n=\sum_{k=0}^\infty p_{n,k}$ is the coefficient of $x^n$ in $$ \begin{align} \sum_{k=0}^\infty \left(\tfrac13x+\tfrac13x^2+\tfrac13x^3\right)^k &=\frac1{1-(\tfrac13x+\tfrac13x^2+\tfrac13x^3)} \\&=\frac{1/2}{1-x}+\frac{1/4}{1+x/(1+i\sqrt{2})}+\frac{1/4}{1+x/(1-i\sqrt{2})} \end{align} $$ The last equality can be derived using the usual partial fractions method. Expanding out each of these fractions into their Taylor series, you get $$ \boxed{p_n = 1/2+\frac{1/4}{(-1-i\sqrt{2})^n}+\frac{1/4}{(-1+i\sqrt{2})^n}} $$ So, you get an exact answer involving complex numbers magically canceling, along with an asymptotic result that the probabilities converge exponentially quickly to $1/2$.

Let $N(n,k)$ be the number of ways of reaching stair $n$ in exactly $k$ steps. If $P_n$ is the probability of reaching stair $n$, then:

$$P_n = \sum_{k = 0}^{\infty}3^{-k}N(n,k)$$

Note that $N(n,k)$ is defined for all integers $n$ and all nonnegative integers $k$, and so $P_n$ is defined for all integers $n$.

If you've reached stair $n$ in $k$ steps, and $k \geq 1$, that means you were at either stair $n-1, n-2$, or $n-3$ in $k-1$ steps. So:

$$N(n,k) = N(n-1,k-1) + N(n-2,k-1) + N(n-3,k-1); \qquad k \geq 1$$

Now, assume $n > 0$. We have:

\begin{align*} P_{n} &= N(n,0) + \sum_{k = 1}^{\infty}3^{-k}\big(N(n-1,k-1) + N(n-2,k-1) + N(n-3,k-1)\big) \\ &= \frac{1}{3}\sum_{k = 0}^{\infty}3^{-k}N(n-1,k) + 3^{-k}N(n-2,k) + 3^{-k}N(n-3,k) \\ &= \frac{1}{3}\big(P_{n-1} + P_{n-2} + P_{n-3}\big) \end{align*}

Since $N(n,0) = 0$ for $n \neq 0$. So, outside of $P_0 = 1$, each probability is just the average of the three prior probabilities, and $P_n = 0$ for $n < 0$. Some initial values:

$$P_0 = 1$$

$$P_1 = \frac{1}{3}(0 + 0 + 1) = \frac{1}{3}$$

$$P_2 = \frac{1}{3}(0 + 1 + 1/3) = \frac{4}{9}$$

$$P_3 = \frac{1}{3}(1 + 1/3 + 4/9) = \frac{16}{27}$$

$$P_4 = \frac{1}{3}(1/3 + 4/9 + 16/27) = \frac{37}{81}$$

Which agrees with your computation.