How can I calculate my catnip output for a cold winter?

You can find it out by putting the variables in the resource formula from the wiki:

perTick = (building output * season modifier + job output * upgrades * happiness) * building % effects + automatic effects - consumption * consumption % effects

or to simplify for catnip in your specific case and naming the variables as seen in the tooltip:

perTick = (base * season modifier + job output * happiness) * structures - demand